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一 |     本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开：                    1、美伊"真谈"还是"假谈"？从几个细节找答案          2、全球股市进入反弹期，哪些方向潜力最大？                    如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。                   新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。                   1、美伊"真谈"还是"假谈"？从几个细节找答案          全球市场正在经历一场明显的微型反弹，引爆这场反弹的是来自中东停战的可能性。    

GOP front-runner and four times-indicted Donald Trump will not be physically present at Wednesday evening's first 2024 presidential primary debate. But he'll be there anyway as the troubled candidate remains the dominant figure – and issue – of the nominating contest.
Typically, early debates are a chance for poll-laggers to make an impression, either by delivering a well-placed zinger at a top-tier candidate or shining with a smart response to a question. The front-runners tend to have targets on their backs, which could result in a weakened position or a stronger one, if they handle attacks from primary rivals well.
But in the case of the debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the participants are in an awkward, perhaps no-win situation: The front-runner won't even be there, and the rest of the field can't attack him without alienating the very voters they'd need to sew up the nomination, should the legally imperiled Trump be forced to suspend his campaign.
Trump is "going to be the huge, spray-tanned elephant in the room. He's going to be what everybody is thinking about, even though he's not there," says Dave Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
That means the eight candidates who have qualified for the debate – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – have few choices, and none is terribly appealing.
They can attack Trump, defend him or try to ignore him – which debate moderators are not likely to let pass, Cohen says. None of those approaches helps a candidate emerge as a better choice than Trump without angering Trump's rank-and-file loyalists.
"They're in a difficult spot, strategically," says Stephen Smith, professor at the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. But "it's one they've earned," he adds.
Only a few have been willing to criticize Trump directly, and it's not appeared to have endeared them to GOP primary voters.
Christie – who worked on Trump's transition team before turning on him – has been the most aggressive in his attacks on Trump, saying the former president lacks the "character" to serve in the Oval Office and needling Trump for skipping the debate, which Christie last week called "completely disrespectful" to GOP voters.
The tactic – essentially making himself the marquee foil of Trump – is based on the gamble that if Trump ends up leaving the race, Christie will emerge as the most prominent truth-teller and default new front-runner.
It's not going so well, so far: National polls have Christie in the low single digits. A recent Des Moines Register/NBC poll in Iowa puts Christie in sixth place with 5% support among GOP caucus-goers.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – who arguably on paper has the most complete and traditional resume for a Republican presidential contender – is also polling in the low single digits, his criticism of Trump not moving the needle at all.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has stepped up his criticism of Trump's behavior – saying the former president asked him to put him above the Constitution by asking him to refuse to certify the 2020 election results – but hasn't made it as personal.
Pence recently said he was not aware of any "broad-based effort" to declassify records before Trump left office, undercutting the former president's claim that the classified documents he is accused of taking and improperly keeping at his Mar-a-Lago resort were, in fact, declassified. But Pence has also been reluctant to say Trump should be treated like any other politician who has been convicted of a felony – meaning, ousted from office.
"I think that needs to be left to the American people. Look, let’s let the former president have his day in court. Let’s maintain a presumption of innocence in this matter," Pence told ABC on Sunday.
Former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley – the only woman who will be onstage Wednesday night – has cautioned that Trump's legal troubles could cost Republicans the general election. She hasn't directly criticized the former president but didn't shy away earlier this month by reminding people of how much worse Trump's situation is getting.
"Like most Americans, I’m tired of commenting on every Trump drama. I’ve lost track of whether this indictment is the third or fourth or the fifth," Haley said during an appearance on “Good Morning New Hampshire” radio show with Jack Heath – before the fourth indictment out of Georgia’s Fulton County.
Others have responded to questions about Trump with attacks on the criminal justice system and its prosecutors themselves.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running a distant second to Trump in most polls, decried the "weaponization of government" after Trump's third indictment – though he conceded he had not actually read the document. DeSantis also acknowledged recently that the 2020 election was not stolen, telling NBC "of course he lost" when asked about Trump's discredited claims of a fraudulent 2020 contest – a comment not likely to endear him to Trump's most devoted supporters.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina called the recent indictment of Trump "un-American and unacceptable. We need a better system than that."
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has edged upward in a couple of state polls, has walked a similar line.
"These are politicized persecutions through prosecution,” he said at a town hall meeting last week. “It would be a lot easier for me if Donald Trump were not in this primary, but that is not how I want to win this election," he added.
And North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is just deflecting the matter entirely.
"I do trust the voters. ... They want presidential elections to be about the future, a vision for the future," Burgum told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday after being asked about Trump's troubles.
In reality, it is the candidates not named Trump who will have the most to prove or explain Wednesday night, analysts say. DeSantis, whose campaign has been flailing, might need to explain why he suggested some Republicans backing Trump are "listless vessels" – a cringe-worthy similar remark to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reference to the "basket of deplorables" in Trump's base.
As the front-runner among the also-rans, DeSantis will likely take the heaviest rhetorical artillery from the GOP field at the debate. Most of the rest will be struggling to get out of single digits – with the possible exception of Burgum, who is still trying to get the American public to recognize his name.
Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to counter-program with the airing of a taped one-on-one interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Thursday – a day when the political news would typically be dominated by post-debate analysis – Trump will be the star player in an unprecedented legal and political drama, turning himself in for processing at a Fulton County jail.
"He's cutting right into the shadow of the debate" with that timing, Smith says. As he undoubtedly will during the debate itself.
。在过去的24个小时，我们看到备受关注的美国和伊朗的这场冲突出现了很多新的进展，当然也会让很多朋友觉得还有烟雾弹，这个事情并没有尘埃落定。

二 | 我们一起来看一看各个利益方大家都伸出了哪些橄榄枝，谈判的可能性到底有多大，资本市场是不是可以短期长出一口气？                    首先我们看一下美国方面。特朗普是正式向伊朗方面拿出来了一个15点谈判框架协议，他也亲自表态说可能已经相当接近达成协议，甚至主动提议要停火一个月的时间专门用来谈判。这个是美国方面，橄榄枝是非常明显的。诡异的是伊朗这边却仍然是在骂街的状态。据权威媒体的报道，伊朗的革命卫队官方表态说，特朗普现在显然是把自己的失败包装成了协议，甚至是带有一点讽刺性质地说"特朗普你被开除了"。这么强硬的态度是不是意味着大家根本没有办法坐在谈判桌的两端，是不是意味着这个谈判桌根本就是美国方面的一厢情愿，这个谈判最终是没有办法往下推进的？                    本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入“妙投888”即可领取。

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