千王之王重出江湖

马斯克证实：SpaceX 将在星舰稳定运营后逐步退役猎鹰 9 火箭_我的网站

一 |     LONDON -- Hundreds of people were being evacuated from their homes and schools closed in parts of Scotland on Thursday, as much of northern Europe braced for stormy weather, heavy rain and gale-force winds from the east.The U.K.'s weather forecaster, the Met Office, issued a rare red alert — the highest level of weather warning — for parts of Scotland, predicting “exceptional rainfall” Thursday and Friday that is expected to cause extensive flooding and “danger to life from fast-flowing or deep floodwater.” The last red alert in the U.K. was issued in 2020.Forecasters say the storm, named Babet by U.K. officials, could bring more than a month’s worth of rain in the worst-affected regions in Scotland.Babet already brought flooding to several towns and villages in Ireland, with some areas remaining under water and without power Thursday. Soldiers helped with evacuation measures in the town of Midleton in County Cork, where more than 100 properties were flooded.In the town of Brechin, near Scotland's eastern coast, officials told residents of about 400 houses to evacuate to local rest centers. Local schools were closed and will remain shut on Friday.In Denmark, residents scrambled to place sandbags along exposed areas. In Assens on the central island of Funen, emergency services deployed huge rubber tubes in the harbor to counter rising water levels, broadcaster TV2 reported. Southern Denmark police urged people along the east coast to leave exposed areas if the weather predictions remain, saying cottages, harbors and other places could be flooded.TV2 reported that the region would likely see the worst flooding in 110 years, and the Danish Meteorological Institute said waves could reach 4 meters (13 feet) along east-facing coasts. The southeastern Danish town of Koege wrote on its Facebook page that emergency workers were busy filling sandbags and urged citizens to “avoid unnecessary baths, dishes, laundry and other water-intensive activities,” saying “the municipality’s treatment plant was at risk of being overloaded.”Police in the area warned that roads may be blocked, urged people to secure valuables and advised against sleeping on their boats in the harbors, saying that "if something happens, emergency services cannot get to them,” police spokesperson Brian Bang-Rasmussen said.Copenhagen's airport and the Danish national rail company warned of cancellations and delays Friday because of bad weather. Several ferry lines between Danish islands were suspended, as were ferries to Rostock in northern Germany and to Oslo.Swedish meteorologists also issued a warning for the south coast from Friday evening and Saturday. They said that the water level in southern parts of Sweden may reach its highest level since the 1990s.In Germany, authorities warned of high water in bays in Schleswig-Holstein, south of the Denmark border, until mid-Saturday.Authorities also warned of high water in the next two days on the Baltic Sea coast of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany’s northernmost state, with water levels of up to 2 meters (6.6 feet) above average possible in the inlet where the city of Flensburg is located. Some ferries to the North Sea islands of Foehr and Amrum were delayed or canceled, German news agency dpa reported.Norwegian meteorologists said a strong low-pressure area over Great Britain combined with high pressure over northern Scandinavia was creating strong east-northeasterly winds, with ”very strong gusts" expected to hit southern Norway from the east.___Olsen reported from Copenhagen, Denmark.___This story corrects that the town of Koege is in southeastern, not southwestern, Denmark.。     8 月 25 日消息，传闻如今得到了证实。SpaceX 计划在其巨型下一代火箭“星舰”（Starship）开始定期执行运营任务后，逐步退役目前公司的主力火箭“猎鹰 9”（Falcon 9）。SpaceX 于 2010 年首次发射猎鹰 9，此后这款火箭很快在航天史上留下了浓墨重彩的一笔。迄今为止，猎鹰 9 已经发射近 700 次，并成为人类历史上首款能够让轨道级火箭一级助推器着陆并重复使用的火箭。

二 | 自 1957 年开始服役的俄罗斯联盟号火箭，是目前执行任务次数唯一超过猎鹰 9 的运载火箭，不过猎鹰 9 有望在明年超过它。然而，SpaceX 创始人兼 CEO 埃隆 · 马斯克 8 月 22 日在 X 上表示，逐步结束“猎鹰”系列火箭的生产和使用是不可避免的。这不仅包括猎鹰 9，还包括采用三级助推器设计的猎鹰重型火箭，后者迄今已经执行过 12 次发射任务。马斯克表示：“一旦星舰能够实现每周数次的稳定飞行，将 SpaceX 极为稀缺的工程和生产资源转移至星舰以将发射频率提升至每日数次便具有合理性，这意味着猎鹰系列的逐步停产。”猎鹰 9 退出商业发射市场后会产生多大影响，目前还很难判断。不过，行业报告显示，SpaceX 可能从 2028 年开始取消绝大多数猎鹰 9 发射任务，只保留少量任务。这些任务很可能包括为 NASA 执行国际空间站（ISS）的载人和补给任务。国际空间站预计至少运行至 2030 年，这意味着商业客户届时可能不得不开始依赖星舰将卫星送入太空。SpaceX 何时开始逐步退出猎鹰 9，将取决于星舰后续的研发进展。与上一代火箭不同，星舰从一开始就按照完全可重复使用的目标设计，其“超级重型”（Super Heavy）助推器和“星舰”上面级都能够返回地球并回收后再次执行飞行任务。

三 | 而猎鹰 9 和猎鹰重型的上面级则属于一次性使用部件。星舰的体型也远大于猎鹰 9。目前的第三代（V3）星舰高达 408 英尺，也就是 124.4 米，而猎鹰 9 的高度为 230 英尺，即 70 米。星舰能够将重量大得多的有效载荷送入太空，预计可以向近地轨道（LEO）运送超过 100 吨载荷。相比之下，猎鹰 9 和猎鹰重型向近地轨道运送的载荷能力分别约为 25 吨和 63 吨。过去几年，猎鹰 9 的绝大多数发射任务都用于部署 SpaceX 的 Starlink 卫星互联网系统。自 2023 年以来，猎鹰 9 已执行超过 300 次 Starlink 发射任务，帮助不断扩大的星座规模达到 1.1 万多颗卫星。不过，新一代 Starlink 卫星的体积更大，设计目标是装入星舰的有效载荷舱，而不是安装在猎鹰 9 顶部。

四 | 一旦星舰能够稳定执行发射任务，甚至在此之前，SpaceX 就计划开始利用新版本卫星升级 Starlink 网络。这很可能会推动星舰发射次数呈指数级增长。猎鹰 9 当年就经历过类似的发展过程。

五 | 2019 年，也就是 SpaceX 开始组建 Starlink 星座的那一年，猎鹰 9 仅发射了 11 次。到了 2025 年，猎鹰 9 的发射次数已经达到惊人的 165 次，其中 122 次用于部署 Starlink 卫星。注意到，NASA 也已经与 SpaceX 签订合同，让后者为 Artemis 计划研发用于登月的星舰版本。第三代星舰计划在明年执行 Artemis III 任务，并与 NASA 的“猎户座”飞船在近地轨道进行对接操作演练。按照计划，星舰还将在 2028 年执行 Artemis IV 任务，将宇航员送上月球表面。据 Ars Technica 报道，SpaceX 已经告知 NASA，计划在同一年结束商业猎鹰 9 发射任务。不过，目前星舰还没有获得用于与国际空间站对接的合同，也没有针对这一用途进行专门设计。NASA 目前计划继续采购 SpaceX 的货运飞船和载人龙飞船任务，至少到 2030 年前持续向国际空间站运送宇航员和物资，因此很难在短期内将这些任务全部转交给星舰。除了成本和合同方面的因素之外，星舰本身巨大的体型也会带来相当大的工程风险，可能超出国际空间站现有的安全设计范围。

六 | 无论国际空间站最终运行到什么时候，SpaceX 能否按计划让猎鹰 9 逐步退出舞台，最终还是取决于星舰能否取得成功。截至目前，星舰已经完成 13 次亚轨道测试飞行。下一次飞行预计将在未来一个月内进行，并有可能首次尝试完整进入轨道。但这只是星舰在真正实现马斯克所说的“每周可靠地飞行数次”之前必须完成的众多里程碑之一。猎鹰 9 已经实现了这样的高频发射能力，但星舰基础设施的建设规模要远远超过目前这十几次成功试飞本身。最终，SpaceX 能多快让星舰达到猎鹰 9 的可靠性和发射频率，将决定这款服役多年的老牌火箭何时能够大规模退出历史舞台。

Current article:http://www.caonaishengpengchuali.shop/news/20260826_436.xls

Published on:12:34:10