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A |     The UN General Assembly in New York is meeting Tuesday to discuss ways to make the Security Council more representative and equitable.,The meeting, convened by General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid in a letter dated July 7, is tasked with deliberating the “question of equitable representation and an increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council.” Sahid is expected to present a draft oral decision “following consultations” with General Assembly members.,A draft presented on the UN’s website reaffirms “the central role of the General Assembly concerning the question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council,” and expresses “the commitment of heads of state and government representing the peoples of the world to instill new life in the discussions on the reform of the Security Council.”,The draft proposes the continuation of “intergovernmental negotiations on Security Council reform” at the upcoming 77th General Assembly in September, including the creation of an “open-ended working group” to discuss the matter.,Background,Created as part of the United Nations after the end of the Second World War, the Security Council consists of the world’s five major nuclear powers (Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain) and 10 rotating non-permanent members. Collectively, their main goal is the maintenance of international peace and security.,A key difference between the UN and its Security Council and the League of Nations – the defunct intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of the First World War, is the inclusion in the former of the right for each permanent member to veto substantive resolutions made by other members, such as accepting new members into the UN, or authorizing the use of force against another country.,The veto concept was a hard-fought victory of the Soviet delegation at the San Francisco conference on the UN’s formation. Moscow argued for the right of veto to prevent one or more major powers from ganging up on others to pursue national geopolitical, economic, or military interests at the expense of others using the UN platform to provide such actions with legitimacy.,The veto principle enabled the Security Council and the UN generally to the survive multiple international crises, both during the Cold War and in the three decades after 1991, and ensured that the UN did not collapse, as its League of Nations predecessor did, in times of crisis.,Putin on 75th Anniversary of WWII: Shared Responsibility to History and Future18 June 2020, 19:47 GMT,Why Reform Now?,The Security Council underwent two major reforms: in 1965, when the original non-permanent membership was increased from six to ten to account for the emergence of new countries in the Global South after the collapse of European colonial empires, and in 1971, when the US dropped its veto to allow the People’s Republic of China to take up its rightful seat at the Security Council, replacing Taiwan.,Discussions on reforming the Security Council began anew in the early 1990s, as the United States and its allies, convinced of their triumph and status as leaders of a new global order following the collapse of the USSR, began discussing the "end of history" and conceptualizing ways to make the 21st century an “American century.” On the other side of the debate, rising powers from the Third World began pushing to reform the UN to make it more representative of their interests.,In 2005, rising economic giants India and Brazil, as well as Germany and Japan, the defeated Axis powers, formed the so-called G4 group of nations to support one another’s push for permanent Security Council membership. In 2005, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan put forward a proposal to expand the council to 24 members, either by creating six new permanent members and three new non-permanent ones, or eight new non-permanent members of a new class of rotating members and one additional non-permanent seat. In 2017, the G4 announced their readiness to temporarily accept non-veto wielding status to become permanent Security Council members.,Opponents of reforming the Security Council have made arguments on the basis of perceived balance of power-related concerns, such as Pakistan opposing India’s permanent membership, or Spain and Italy opposing German membership, South Korea opposing Japanese membership, and major Latin American powers like Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia opposing Brazil’s membership. Other rising powers, such as Turkey, have argued in favor of the Security Council’s expansion to better represent Asian, Latin American, and African countries.,Moscow has paid a heavy price for its permanent membership in the Security Council, first through its central role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan during the Second World War, and then in 1991, by taking upon itself the entirety of the USSR’s $66 billion perestroika-era debt after the country’s collapse. But Russia has also expressed support for reforming the body to better represent developing nations, particularly India and Brazil, as well as a candidate from Africa. At BRICS summits in 2021 and 2022, Russia and China reiterated their continued support for improving the BRICS’ status at the UN, including via a comprehensive reform of the Security Council.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,In recent months, these calls have grown louder, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in April that countries from the Global South would be an excellent way to curb the “unilateralism” of the West at the UN.,Last week, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov reaffirmed Russia’s readiness to discuss the expansion of the Security Council to provide membership to India and Brazil, but not US allies Germany and Japan.,“Russia is calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council based on a broad consensus. It requires increasing the proportionate share of African, Asian and Latin American countries for the UN Security Council to be able to reflect the aspirations of people around the world and be a more democratic body,” Denisov said, speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4.,“At the same time, I would like to be frank – we aren’t ready to support the accession of actors such as Germany and Japan. We don’t see any added value from their potential accession. Given the current balance on the Council – or imbalance, I should say, the membership of the two aforementioned candidates is unlikely to strengthen it, rather it will make the imbalance even more striking,” the diplomat stressed.,An Idea Whose Time Has Come?,“It appears that all nations are aware that the UNSC must become more inclusive and representative of the reality of today’s world,” says Paolo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based think tank.,According to the observer, apart from the 1971 modification of the Council to reflect China taking over Taiwan’s seat, the UNSC of today still largely “reflects the world of 1945.”,“For many years the UNSC has been blocked by cross-veto proceedings, affecting stability and peace in the world. Unblocking the UNSC is the most urgent need for all nations wishing for the effectiveness of a rule-based international systems,” Raffone argues.,Raffone favors adding BRICS countries into the mix, pointing to their collective status representing “the largest share of world population, land and [purchasing power parity],” as well as “spectacular” economic growth over the past two decades. “Their inclusion in the UNSC would certainly strive to keep globalization alive under new rules and governance,” and reduce problems such as lack of democracy, poor geographical representation, and “lack of legitimacy for ensuring global governance” of the current body, he believes.,The observer emphasizes, however, that for any reform initiative to succeed, two-thirds of the UN’s member states would have vote for and ratify it, with every permanent member of the Security Council also needing to agree – no easy task to pull off.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to India5 July, 10:29 GMT,New Multipolar World Order,“The enlargement of the UN Security Council would formally certify, on the international level, the transition from US unipolarism to the new multipolar architecture. It would be an epochal event!” says Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends: International Institute for Global Analyses, an Italy-based international affairs think tank.,Graziani is convinced that the benefits from the body’s expansion would be multifold, including rebalancing power in international organizations “hitherto essentially ‘Westernist’” and “hegemonized” by the West. “Above all,” he says, “enlargement would be essential to ensure greater stability” in the “turbulent geopolitical and geo-economic transition” that the present moment represents.,The observer stresses that any reforms would need to be gradual to prevent an institutional crisis, but admits that “some reforms must be radical,” given the organization’s dominance by Western powers.,Like Raffone, Graziani supports the increased visibility of BRICS nations in the body, citing their outsized significance to global security and the economy and underrepresentation in this sense.,“At the moment we are in a particular situation: on the one hand there is the West led by the United States and the British which constitutes a conservative pole that aims to maintain a hegemonic role on a planetary level, on the other hand there is a set of nations (basically the BRICS countries) which demand a greater presence in global decisions. Within the framework of the UN, the contribution of the BRICS countries would be fundamental since it would guarantee a balance that has not been there so far,” Graziani believes.,The observer stresses that there simply is no alternative to the UN’s authority in international affairs, and that subsequently, “a new, more balanced (multipolar) international forum needs to be set up” in the present situation.。    

「坏 AI，使人笨！」作者｜张勇毅编辑｜靖宇「AI 用多了，人会不会逐渐变笨？」这应该是过去三年被讨论最多的一个迷思之一，从 ChatGPT 走红那天就有。吵了三年多，两边都拿不出像样的证据：担心的人只有体感，不担心的人只有立场。8 月 18 日，《经济学人》给这场争论补上了迄今最硬的一份证据。报道的主角是 2.7 万名中国中学生。用上 AI 之后，他们的作业分数平均涨了 18%，写一份作业的时间从 64 分钟缩到 45 分钟。到这里全是好消息，直到月考卷子发下来：闭卷考试里，这批学生的成绩比不用 AI 的同学低了 20%。作业分曾是最可靠的「晴雨表」：作业越好，考试越好。

B | 而在用 AI 的学生中间，作业分越高，基本等于 AI 用得越深。于是曲线变成了：用得越狠的孩子，考试跌得越惨。作业分，第一次开始撒谎。

作业分超过 100 的人之中，不用 AI 的人分数上涨到了 112，用 AI 之后一路跳水到 64。｜图片来源：经济学人《经济学人》的数据底稿，是斯德哥尔摩大学和香港大学三位经济学家 6 月挂出的论文，标题就叫《生成式 AI 学习惩罚》。

《生成式 AI 学习惩罚》｜图片来源：SSRN样本来自中国中部一个县，人口超过一百万。论文特意强调它的普通：像沿海之外的大多数中国县城。26811 名初高中生，5 所初中、4 所高中，装下当地九成中学生，从 2022 年 9 月跟到 2025 年 6 月，整整 30 个月。这个县的作业在线上提交，系统记下每个人的用时；月考、中考、高考的成绩都进数据库——写多快、考多好，第一次成了直接测量的硬数据。谁在用 AI，则来自回收率超过 96% 的全员问卷。2022 年 9 月，用 AI 的学生几乎为零。到 2025 年 6 月，这个数字是 80%。这条曲线有两次明显跳升，分别踩在 DeepSeek V2.5 和 R1 的发布点上。工具全是熟面孔：豆包、DeepSeek、文心一言、通义千问。

采纳曲线的两次跳升，都踩在 DeepSeek 发版上｜图片来源：CEPR结论就是开头那组数字：作业 +18%，用时 −30%，月考 −20%，相当于 1.4 个标准差。惩罚在各科并不均匀：社科类最重，跌 27%；数学 22%；英语 17%；语文最轻，9%。初中生比高中生惨四成，男生比女生惨。看来变笨这件事也不优待聪明人：恰恰是原来成绩最好的那批孩子，跌得最狠。

C | 升学考试的账要算得更小心。

D | 6 月底这项研究在中文互联网刷屏时，传播最广的说法是「中考暴跌 24%、高考暴跌 18%」。论文里的原意克制得多：这是用满两年以上学生的完整惩罚，全体 AI 用户的平均效应只有 7% 左右。但这份「克制」本身才是更坏的消息：惩罚需要两年才长满。作者们专门点了一句，眼下那些几星期、几个月的短期研究，都在系统性低估 AI 的学习成本。01消失的模范生这项研究 6 月刚出现时，英文讨论中其实还有一个安慰性的结论：有两成学生用 AI 但不外包作业，成绩没受损。所以问题不在 AI，在用法。

E | 论文确实说了前半句。它给「外包」下了一个数值上的定义：作业用时少于 50 分钟算「内包」，少于 45 分钟才算是真「外包」。刚开始用 AI 的学生里，外包的占 58%。

F | 而那些照常花时间写作业、只拿 AI 当家教的孩子，考试成绩和不用 AI 的同学几乎没有差别。

G | 论文甚至发现，在 50 到 65 分钟的重叠区间里，两类孩子花同样的时间，考出几乎一样的分数。AI 本身不带毒性，毒性全在省下来的那段时间里。如果论文停在这里，它就是一篇「工具无罪、用法有罪」的标准论文。

H | 但论文其实更深一步地探讨了这个问题：用满 5 个月之后，外包的比例从 58% 涨到 81%，完全外包从 34% 涨到 50%。那批花 65 分钟以上认真写作业的「模范用户」，全部是刚上手不到 5 个月的新手。以及采纳满 6 个月之后，没有一个 AI 学生的作业用时还超过 65 分钟。

I | 26811 人的样本里，「好好用 AI」不是一种稳定的用法，是一个维持不到半年的过渡状态。论文作者的解释很短：AI 挤掉的，是强度最高的那部分努力。

用满六个月后，65 分钟以上的区间空了｜图片来源：CEPR它不是又一篇「AI 让成绩变差」的论文，它是在撕掉一个安慰的遮羞布：只要教会孩子正确使用，一切都会好起来。数据给出的回答是，没有人能一直正确使用：毕竟作业分在涨，家长在群里点赞，老师看到的提交记录越来越整齐。每一个反馈都其实都在潜移默化中，形成一个畸形的激励机制：你做得很好，再快一点也没关系。02大人的考场看到这里，这个研究似乎跟传统我们理解中、大脑已经发育健全的成年人关系不大。但同样的曲线，过去一年多，在成年人身上已经画了四次。《柳叶刀·胃肠病学和肝病学》去年 8 月发表了一项波兰研究：四家内镜中心的 19 名资深医生，人均做过 2000 例以上肠镜，用了几个月 AI 辅助检查之后，回到没有 AI 的状态，腺瘤检出率从 28.4% 掉到 22.4%，相对下降 20%。和中学生的月考，同一个数字。这是医学界第一次在真实临床里测到「用 AI 之后，人的手艺生疏了」，主角还是这个星球上最不该被怀疑基本功的一群人。

J | 第二次在写作者身上。麻省理工媒体实验室去年 6 月的脑电实验里，54 名学生戴着电极帽写作文。用 ChatGPT 那组的神经连接强度垫底，比纯靠自己写的那组最多低了 55%；写完不久，83% 的人连自己文章里的一句话都复述不出来。研究团队给这个现象起了个名字：认知负债。第三次在办公室里。微软研究院和卡内基梅隆大学去年调查了 319 名知识工作者，结论一句话就能说完：对 AI 输出越有信心的人，自己动脑核查的投入越少。第四次在程序员身上。研究机构 METR 去年的对照实验里，资深程序员用上 AI 实测变慢了，自己却觉得快了 20%。今年 2 月它想复测，没做成，原因写在报告里：大多数开发者已经拒绝在没有 AI 的情况下工作。和那个再也没人肯花 65 分钟写作业的教室，一模一样。

脱离 AI 之后，检出率没有回到从前｜图片来源：METR临床、脑电、问卷、对照实验，四次预警说的是同一件事：AI 在场，产出变好；AI 离场，能力变差。回到开头那个吵了三年多的问题。这些研究给出的答案，比一句「会变笨」更难受：AI 没有降低任何人的智商，它是把「变聪明」的那道工序抽走了。分数照涨，产出照交，只是那份本该在 64 分钟里长出来的能力，没有长。认知科学管这个叫「认知卸载」：把本该在自己脑子里跑的过程，交给外部工具。卸载不新鲜，计算器和导航都是。新鲜的是位置：AI 接走的不是运算和记路，是打草稿、试错、推演，恰好是心智模型长出来的那道工序。落到日常工作上，这变化听着甚至像升级：从「写代码」变成「审代码」，从执行者变成把关人。但把关的前提，是脑子里有一份自己的底稿。没亲手推演过的人，审的其实是个黑箱，AI 的逻辑链一旦错在深处，他连该从哪里起疑都不知道。学生的版本更简单：作业是草稿，考试是 Debug。草稿外包出去，Debug 那天就露馅。区别只有一个。学生每个月都有一场闭卷考试，把这条曲线摆到台面上。而大多数成年人的工作，没有月考。论文的最后留了一点余地。

K | 把时间拉长看，AI 学习惩罚正在收窄：同样用满 5 个月，2023 年初的学生平均损失 25%，2025 年 6 月只有 16%。

同样用满 5 个月，惩罚从 25% 收窄到 16%｜图片来源：CEPR师生在适应，工具侧其实也有人想办法，比如逼 AI 给答案时同步展示推演过程。但按作者们的判断，损失在变小，却没有归零的迹象。

L | 9 月 1 日开学。

M | 全国的教室里，这场 26811 人的实验，会以更大的样本重跑一遍。以后看到孩子的作业天天 100 分，也许得先问一句：这 100 分是孩子挣来的，还是豆包挣来的。

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Published on:06:38:49