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Real estate groups urged the Fed to stop rate hikes. Here’s why._我的网站

A |     Major housing industry groups voiced "profound concern" in a letter this week urging the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.The rare public admonishment from top business advocates -- including the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders -- underscores a dramatic slowdown in the housing market due in large part to rising interest rates.The letter arrives roughly three weeks before the Fed plans to make its latest rate-hike decision.Mortgage rates have reached their highest level in more than two decades and they have continued to rise. Data released on Thursday showed that mortgage rates increased for the fifth consecutive week, according to Freddie Mac."The speed and magnitude of these [mortgage] rate increases, and resulting dislocation in our industry, is painful and unprecedented," the letter from the housing groups said.Here's what to know about why real estate groups called on the Fed to stop raising rates:

What's happening in the housing market?

Sky-high mortgage rates have dramatically slowed the housing market, since homebuyers have balked at stiff borrowing costs and home sellers have opted to stay on mortgages that lock them into relatively low rates.Mortgage applications have fallen to their lowest level since 1996, the Mortgage Brokers Association said earlier this month.Sales of previously owned homes, meanwhile, have plummeted more than 15% compared to a year ago, the National Association of Realtors found in August.The slowdown has coincided with a sharp rise in costs for potential homebuyers.The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has climbed to nearly 7.6%, Freddie Mac data shows.When the Fed initiated the rise of bond yields with its first rate hike of the current series in March 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage stood at just 4.45%.Each percentage point increase in a mortgage rate can add thousands or tens of thousands in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.

What role is the Federal Reserve playing in the housing market slowdown?

An aggressive series of interest rate hikes at the Federal Reserve since last year has pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, which loosely tracks with long-term mortgage rates.The Fed has fought elevated inflation with borrowing cost increases as it tries to slash price hikes by slowing the economy and choking off demand.While inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of about 9% last summer, price increases remain more than a percentage point higher than the Fed's inflation target.Price increases held steady in September, fresh data on Thursday showed, suggesting that elevated inflation remains resistant to the interest rate hikes.The persistence of elevated inflation has prompted the Fed to espouse a policy of holding interest rates at high levels for a prolonged period, which in turn has increased the 10-year Treasury yield and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.Moreover, the Fed expects to raise rates one more time this year, according to projections released last month.Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the continued effect of interest rates on mortgages, noting that activity in the housing market "remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates."

What do the housing industry groups want the Fed to do?

Housing industry advocates want the Fed to take swift actions that reassure investors and other market participants of an end to the policies cooling the industry.Most notably, the industry groups want the central bank to release a statement saying that it has abandoned consideration of additional rate hikes.In their letter to Fed officials, the housing groups cautioned that a further slowdown in real estate could help tip the U.S. economy into a recession, scuttling the central bank's effort to achieve a "soft landing.""We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter said.。    Ambuj Sonal, Associate Partner at Link Legal, a firm tracking mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and joint ventures, among others, spoke with Sputnik about cross-border investments in the era of growing uncertainty and the impact this will have on M&A activity in 2022 and beyond.,Sputnik: In the past two years, many restrictions have been imposed on foreign investments globally, mainly for reasons of national security. What effect have such regulatory changes had on cross-border mergers and acquisitions?,Ambuj: The primary reasons for implementing such additional scrutiny were to control the misuse of the uncertain situation and opportunistic investment behavior. Indeed, these restrictions affected cross-border deals globally in early 2020. For example, the European Commission Report on foreign investment flows [released in November 2021] suggested that foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to European countries declined by approximately 71 percent during the time of COVID.,Although these economies had amended regulations to protect their domestic companies from 'corporate raiders', this deterred foreign investors and caused a substantial decline in inbound M&A deals.,Having said that, the global cross-border M&A activity showed huge improvements in the second half of 2020, when most of the countries had started vaccination and adopted other measures to control the pandemic.,Reports show that from the second half of 2020, the volume of global deals increased by approximately 29 percent, and deal values soared by roughly 156 percent, indicating that cross-border M&A deals enjoyed a quicker recovery from COVID.,Sputnik: India has also amended foreign investment rules, explicitly targeting countries with which it shares land borders. How has it affected M&A activity and overall foreign investment flow, primarily from China?,Ambuj: The Indian government, in Press Note 3 (PN3) in April 2020, decreed that all investments from entities (direct or indirect) with which India shares a land border, would have to be made under the 'approval route' and would need security clearance.,PN3 also covered investments where beneficial ownership belonged to China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. Initially, investors from these nations approached the Indian Government for approval. However, the government was silent about these approvals until the first year of PN3.,According to data disclosed under a recent application filed under the Right to Information Act, the Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has revealed that it received 382 FDI proposals from Chinese entities after PN3, of which 80 proposals have been approved.,The DPIIT made the commitment that appropriate due diligence and FDI approvals from Chinese entities would be scrutinized on a case-by-case basis. Before PN3, Chinese firms were actively investing in technology and e-commerce businesses in India, particularly in start-ups.,Up to 2019, India received foreign investments of approximately $3.4Bln from China and Hong Kong. However, post PN3, the total investment from China and Hong Kong has declined to $952Mln or 72 percent.,Having said that, despite COVID-19 and a huge drop in Chinese investments, India has received the highest annual FDI ($83.57Bln) in the 2021-22 financial year, and has emerged as a preferred investment destination.,The steps taken by the Indian government during the past few years have affected the increasing volumes of inbound FDI, which has led to record levels.,Sputnik: The geopolitical scenario has undergone tectonic changes because of tensions between China and the US, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Decoupling is a new buzzword that many say is part of de-globalization. How is this affecting mergers and acquisitions globally, especially in India?,Ambuj: 'Decoupling' refers to a situation where another country replaces a particular country in a global and extended supply chain. 'De-globalization' would constitute a step beyond 'decoupling' where activities that are performed offshore are brought back home completely.,Tensions between the US and China have caused a major drop in cross-border M&A deals for these two countries (an almost 95 percent drop from 2016 to 2020) primarily because of geopolitical, trade, and tariff uncertainties.,On the other hand, global M&A deals were badly hit because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to data provided by Reuters, the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the value of global M&A activities to plunge 29 percent in the first quarter of 2022.,The geopolitical scenario will most probably result in a complex and disrupted global supply chain. The present conflicts such as between US and China, and Russia and Ukraine have given rise to debate about whether we are heading towards 'decoupling', which might slowly lead to 'de-globalization'.,Decoupling and de-globalization will affect the global economy adversely and could result in long-standing inflation.,So far as India is concerned, the geopolitical situation has caused unexpected price rises, disrupted supply chains, and introduced other uncertainties because of blocked inventory. This has affected major sectors such as textiles, plastics, steel, pharma, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), etc.,Although such geopolitical situations have majorly affected M&A activity in Asia, investments in India might see a rise. Mostly, the manufacturing sector could benefit, considering how easy it is to do business and the cost-effective labor in the Indian market.,Other European countries are already considering shifting their manufacturing facilities from China to India. This is a result of the Indian government's efforts to boost foreign investments, which has made India a preferred investment destination.,Sputnik: Despite unprecedented sanctions by the West, most Asian countries, including India, have carved out a space for themselves in this crisis and are maximizing their geopolitical leverage without limiting economic opportunities. Given this backdrop, do you think Asian countries will outpace their global peers in the M&A sector?,Ambuj: India has strong business relationships with Russia, especially in the defense, oil and gas, and automotive sectors.,Because of the sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has been isolated from global financial systems and trading. Therefore, strong support and implementation of such sanctions may not be viewed as a beneficial step.,So far as opportunities are concerned, India can be seen as an alternative supplier of manufactured exports to the West. However, the preference would be given to countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ie Taiwan, Korea and Japan. This may result in major investments in Asian countries, which may exceed the western market's M&A activities in deal volume and size.,From a cross-border M&A point of view, India remains a preferred destination with an FDI of approximately $83.57Bln and 2,064 M&A deals in the 2021-22 financial year, which puts it in top spot globally. Mauritius and Singapore remain the top investors for India, and we can see India being comfortably placed as an attractive business nation.,Sputnik: Recently, a large number of western firms have announced their intention to leave the Russian market. Has this created space for Indian firms to buy assets or to invest in Russia?,Ambuj: Yes. Judging from the silence of the Indian government on the subject of sanctions, Indian firms are keen to capitalize on the geopolitical conflict as an opportunity to invest and gain a share of the Russian market. Opportunities are available mainly in industries serving the pharmaceutical, oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors.,Furthermore, since big global companies such as Apple, fast retail and Ikea have shut or kept their operations in Russia on hold, mid-size Indian companies in the retail and fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sectors are also interested in doing business in India.,Additionally, since supply chains between Russia and -European countries are blocked, Indian suppliers are looking to initiate strong trade relations by offering undisrupted supply to Russia.,Sputnik: Reports claim that Russian businesses and other big players have been looking for ways to invest their money in Asia. What kind of investment opportunities does the Indian market offer them?,Ambuj: Unlike the UK, India does not offer any scheme like a 'Golden Visa' for Russian businessmen who can trade for their residential status in lieu of multi-million investments in the country. However, investment opportunities in India remain plentiful and attractive. As India's Prime Minister said at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year: "This is the best time to invest in India.!,Over the years, the Indo-Russian bilateral relationship has developed into a comprehensive partnership that includes cooperation in several high-technology sectors.,India and Russia have projected that bilateral trade will be worth $30Bln by 2025. This will boost the India-Russia business relationship, and many opportunities await Russian investors in India.,The key areas for Russian investments to focus on in India are telecommunications, automobiles, industrial services, oil and gas, and medical/surgical appliances.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。

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