A | "I think it would be best for President Trump to hold-back on an early announcement," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group. "An early announcement may be a distraction from the very critical mid-term Congressional races and provide a mechanism to mobilize the Democratic base. Currently, it looks as if there will be a landslide of historic proportions resulting in a 'Red Tidal Wave' switching both the House and the Senate to a sizable Republican majority.",Politico and the Washington Post reported last week that Trump had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential Trump 2024 campaign. The Post quoted one Trump ally who, speaking on conditions of anonymity, put the odds at “70-30 he announces [his presidential bid] before the midterms.” Others did not rule out that he may announce it sooner than September.,"My own view is that President Trump would better campaign for the candidates he is supporting," explained Rasmussen. "This would give extra attention to the importance of local races; provide his support to the congressional candidates while at the same time getting visibility nationwide without the focus on himself. This could be very positive for the Republican Party and the Trump movement.",Meanwhile, 49% of Republicans place Trump at the top of their list of potential presidential candidates, with Florida Governor Rick DeSantis sitting on 25%, noted US political analyst Don DeBar.,Similarly, a poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on June 29 indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. At the same time, candidates who have either been endorsed or supported by Trump were largely successful during the GOP primaries.,"Should the economy continue to tumble downward, and if the war in Ukraine continues to induce fear of a global conflagration, Republicans may find Trump invaluable, if not indispensable, in capturing both houses of Congresses and a number of state legislatures as well," said DeBar.,Poll: Biden's Economic Approval Rating at 30%, Lower Than Nadirs for Trump and ObamaYesterday, 16:59 GMT,Dems Seeking to Reinvigorate Bases,Democratic strategists are hoping a Trump pre-midterm announcement might help Democrats galvanize their base.,"The American electorate is highly polarized by party, and a combination of a five year wall-to-wall media campaign attacking Trump, along with constant legal and procedural attacks by Democrats, the 'intelligence community' and other organs of what has become known as 'the deep state' has placed him in the role of public enemy number one in the eyes of Democrats," explained DeBar.,This situation, along with Trump's popularity among Republicans and the loss of legitimacy of GOP establishment politicians, "has also created a deep cleavage within that party along the lines of pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republican officials," according to the political analyst.,"As for energizing Democrats to come out and vote against those associated with Trump, clearly this is a part of the Democrat's strategy - the January 6 show hearings are prima facie evidence of this," he said. "But that is a strategy that has failed a number of times, beginning with the 2016 election. And the fact that Biden's numbers are at the same level as Richard Nixon's on the day before he resigned in disgrace means, absent some miraculous turnaround in the economy and a return to normalcy in eastern Europe, Democrats will go down in flames in the fall no matter the type or intensity of mobilization of their voters by any negative campaign based upon hatred of Trump.",House Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Secret Service Over Alleged Missing Text Messages on Capitol Breach16 July, 12:44 GMT,House Select Committee on Jan 6 Attack,The Dems apparently hope that the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 protests may throw sand in the gears of Trump and the Make America Great Again movement.,According to Politico, the panel's "much-anticipated hearing" will happen on Thursday. It is expected to feature former Trump White House press aide Sarah Matthews and former Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger. Moreover, committee members, aides and allies say that their investigations and hearings will continue past November, with the only "hard deadline" being January 3, 2023, "when Republicans likely take over the House," Politico reports.,"The committee is a circus!" said Rasmussen. "It is even more tragic than the [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller investigation. We have hundreds of people, many held without charges, being kept and tried as political prisoners. This is not about justice; it is criminal what is happening to patriotic people exercising their right to be heard with many being lured onto Capitol grounds. The hearings are a tragedy to our nation’s underlying values.",Rasmussen projects that the Dems "will try to drag the Committee hearings out as long as possible" even though they have not received the reaction that was sought for. The Democratic Party has a lot of failing policies and hearings apparently serve as a sort of distraction. The think tank executive vice president does not think that the Dem’s effort poses an obstacle for Trump, however, like the Mueller Investigation, it could provide additional challenges.,"Clearly, the January 6 Committee is attempting to do a (former President of Brazil) Lula on Trump - tie him up in criminal and other court proceedings to render him either legally or politically ineligible to run, in order to prevent him from winning another term," said DeBar.,However, the political analyst suggested that efforts to delegitimize Trump could prompt fierce resistance from his multi-million base. DeBar does not rule out that "if Trump is barred from running through a process that appears illegitimate in front of those voters, there is a real possibility that it could provoke an actual - and not play-pretend - insurrection, which could, in turn, lead to open civil war."。 AI摘要 桃园议员凌涛批评卓荣泰称因预算删减仅能电话勘灾是借口，指责民进党重辅选轻救灾，忽视南部水患，此举恐重创高雄市长候选人赖瑞隆选情。
B | 台湾南部地区暴雨不断，传出淹水灾情，台行政机构负责人卓荣泰8月24日称，基于蓝白民代删减预算的结果，这几天只能用电话跟各地联系。对此，国民党前主席朱立伦爱将、桃园市议员凌涛批评，卓荣泰称删预算无法勘灾，是压倒民进党高雄市市长候选人赖瑞隆选情最后一根稻草。 凌涛表示，高雄、台南长期给民进党莫大的宽容。台南市市长黄伟哲一年多次出境，未妥善管理废弃物，发生登上外媒的大爆炸后，第一时间却推给业者；赖清德南下勘灾，沾沾自喜说“只淹30厘米”，又大喊大陆要介选高雄，一再低估民众的智慧。 凌涛回忆，昔日台南大雨，赖清德面对市民反映通信问题，斥责“郭国文手机可以通”，好像是民众刻意污蔑；民宅屋顶破了大洞，还要市民自己爬上楼处理。 凌涛说，如今台南、高雄淹水，正需要台当局全力投入救灾、设立前进指挥中心，赖清德、卓荣泰一个吵公务机要费被砍，一个闹沟通业务费不足，最后只剩“打电话救灾”，就是不愿真正与灾民站在一起。 凌涛直言，南部人已给民进党莫大的空间与容错，卓荣泰却还拿“大罢免”已经证明失败的荒谬攻防，来敷衍南部乡亲。卓荣泰哭穷无法勘灾，昨天却能到台中合体何欣纯、在台北同台沈伯洋，维安特勤还得在雨中交通奔波。
C | “有空辅选，没法勘灾！”凌涛批评，面对民众最急迫的救灾、生活与治水问题，不愿正面回应，只剩政治口水，民众无语问苍天！。
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